Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a groundbreaking book that explores the science of prediction and how ordinary people can become exceptionally accurate forecasters. Drawing on decades of research and a massive government-funded forecasting tournament, the book reveals that good forecasting doesn't require innate talent or advanced technology, but rather a specific way of thinking. Tetlock and Gardner showcase how individuals can improve their predictive abilities by gathering evidence from diverse sources, thinking probabilistically, collaborating in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit errors and adapt. The book uses compelling stories and interviews with high-level decision-makers to illustrate that these skills can be learned and applied to various fields, from business and finance to politics and international affairs, making it a valuable guide for anyone seeking to make better decisions in an uncertain world. The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. A New York Times Editors' Choice A Washington Post Bestseller A Hudson Booksellers Best Business Interest Book of 2015 Longlisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award Winner of the Axiom Business Book Award in Business Theory (Gold Medal) Explains how to improve our ability to predict the future in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life. Offers a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Shows that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods, but involves gathering evidence, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and admitting error. Specifications: ASIN: B00RKO6MS8 Publisher: Crown Publication date: September 29, 2015 Language: English File size: 3.8 MB Screen Reader: Supported Enhanced typesetting: Enabled X-Ray: Enabled Word Wise: Enabled Print length: 328 pages ISBN-10: 0804136709 ISBN-13: 978-0804136709 Page Flip: Enabled